Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Sparta Rotterdam12%
Draw15%
Ajax73%

1.28 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam

3.35 expected goals for Ajax

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Ajax the clear favourite: 73% to win. It expects 4.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 73% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
Over 1.5 goals95%It happened
Over 2.5 goals73%It happened
Over 3.5 goals68%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals49%It did not happen

Both teams score66%
Sparta Rotterdam or draw27%
Draw or Ajax88%
No draw85%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 5.4 for Ajax

Over 8.5 corners69%
Over 9.5 corners59%
Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.8 for Ajax

Over 3.5 cards41%
Over 4.5 cards23%
Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

32.1 expected

12.4 for Sparta Rotterdam and 19.7 for Ajax

Over 20.5 shots93%
Over 22.5 shots88%
Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

20.9 expected

10.8 for Sparta Rotterdam and 10.1 for Ajax

Over 20.5 fouls52%
Over 22.5 fouls36%
Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.