Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Sunday 25 October, 08:30

Final score

NEC Nijmegen2-2Groningen

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a NEC Nijmegen win (38%).

NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen

  1. NEC Nijmegen38%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Groningen38%

1.89 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen

1.83 expected goals for Groningen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 68%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.5 for NEC Nijmegen and 3.9 for Groningen

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.2 expected

1.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.9 for Groningen

  1. Over 3.5 cards40%
  2. Over 4.5 cards22%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

27.5 expected

15.6 for NEC Nijmegen and 11.9 for Groningen

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

21.2 expected

11.3 for NEC Nijmegen and 10.0 for Groningen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls54%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls25%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.