Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Sunday 25 October, 06:15

Final score

Fortuna Sittard1-0Excelsior

The model's most likely result happened: a Fortuna Sittard win (40%).

Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior

  1. Fortuna Sittard40%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Excelsior35%

1.71 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard

1.55 expected goals for Excelsior

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.9 for Fortuna Sittard and 4.5 for Excelsior

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Fortuna Sittard and 2.3 for Excelsior

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

27.8 expected

15.5 for Fortuna Sittard and 12.3 for Excelsior

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

22.2 expected

9.8 for Fortuna Sittard and 12.4 for Excelsior

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.