ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen

ADO Den Haag23%
Draw25%
Heerenveen52%

1.18 expected goals for ADO Den Haag

1.83 expected goals for Heerenveen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Heerenveen has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a ADO Den Haag win at 23%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
Over 3.5 goals36%It happened
Over 4.5 goals19%It happened

Both teams score57%
ADO Den Haag or draw48%
Draw or Heerenveen76%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.8 for ADO Den Haag and 5.2 for Heerenveen

Over 8.5 corners62%
Over 9.5 corners51%
Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for ADO Den Haag and 2.1 for Heerenveen

Over 3.5 cards57%
Over 4.5 cards37%
Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

29.3 expected

12.3 for ADO Den Haag and 17.0 for Heerenveen

Over 20.5 shots88%
Over 22.5 shots81%
Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

23.4 expected

12.8 for ADO Den Haag and 10.7 for Heerenveen

Over 20.5 fouls70%
Over 22.5 fouls55%
Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.