Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

VVV Venlo vs Jong PSV U21

  1. VVV Venlo52%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Jong PSV U2126%

2.08 expected goals for VVV Venlo

1.29 expected goals for Jong PSV U21

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

VVV Venlo has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Jong PSV U21 win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong PSV U21 attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the VVV Venlo defence, which lets in 31% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

VVV Venlo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. VVV Venlo attack+8%
  3. Jong PSV U21 defence+28%

Expected goals2.09

Jong PSV U21

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Jong PSV U21 attack−27%
  2. VVV Venlo defence+31%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.2 for VVV Venlo and 4.3 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for VVV Venlo and 2.2 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

30.2 expected

20.1 for VVV Venlo and 10.1 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

26.0 expected

12.8 for VVV Venlo and 13.1 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.