Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Jong AZ vs Almere City FC

  1. Jong AZ28%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Almere City FC51%

1.71 expected goals for Jong AZ

2.64 expected goals for Almere City FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Almere City FC has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Jong AZ win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong AZ defence, which lets in 70% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Jong AZ attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 64%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Jong AZ

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Jong AZ attack+21%
  3. Almere City FC defence−7%

Expected goals1.71

Almere City FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Almere City FC attack+14%
  2. Jong AZ defence+70%

Expected goals2.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals63%
  5. Over 4.5 goals44%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.2 for Jong AZ and 4.6 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Jong AZ and 2.0 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

30.9 expected

16.3 for Jong AZ and 14.6 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.7 for Jong AZ and 11.6 for Almere City FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.