Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Heracles vs Roda

  1. Heracles53%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Roda24%

1.67 expected goals for Heracles

0.91 expected goals for Roda

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Heracles has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Roda win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Roda attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Heracles attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 11.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Heracles

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Heracles attack+28%
  3. Roda defence−13%

Expected goals1.67

Roda

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Roda attack−25%
  2. Heracles defence−10%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.2 expected

6.2 for Heracles and 5.0 for Roda

  1. Over 8.5 corners72%
  2. Over 9.5 corners63%
  3. Over 10.5 corners53%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Heracles and 2.2 for Roda

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

29.2 expected

18.3 for Heracles and 10.9 for Roda

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

27.8 expected

14.6 for Heracles and 13.2 for Roda

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.