Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax

  1. FC Eindhoven46%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Jong Ajax32%

2.10 expected goals for FC Eindhoven

1.66 expected goals for Jong Ajax

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Eindhoven has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Jong Ajax win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong Ajax defence, which lets in 65% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Eindhoven defence, which lets in 65% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Eindhoven

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Eindhoven attack−16%
  3. Jong Ajax defence+65%

Expected goals2.10

Jong Ajax

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Jong Ajax attack−26%
  2. FC Eindhoven defence+65%

Expected goals1.66

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for FC Eindhoven and 4.8 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for FC Eindhoven and 2.5 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.7 expected

15.5 for FC Eindhoven and 13.2 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

27.0 expected

12.8 for FC Eindhoven and 14.2 for Jong Ajax

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.