Dordrecht vs NAC Breda
- Dordrecht20%
- Draw22%
- NAC Breda58%
1.06 expected goals for Dordrecht
2.47 expected goals for NAC Breda
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes NAC Breda the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Dordrecht defence, which lets in 75% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Dordrecht attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Dordrecht
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Dordrecht attack−25%
- NAC Breda defence−6%
Expected goals1.06
NAC Breda
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- NAC Breda attack+4%
- Dordrecht defence+75%
Expected goals2.47
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals87%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Over 3.5 goals47%
- Over 4.5 goals28%
- Both teams score58%
- Dordrecht or draw42%
- Draw or NAC Breda80%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.8 for Dordrecht and 3.7 for NAC Breda
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.3 expected
2.1 for Dordrecht and 2.2 for NAC Breda
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
22.5 expected
11.3 for Dordrecht and 11.2 for NAC Breda
- Over 20.5 shots60%
- Over 22.5 shots47%
- Over 24.5 shots35%
Fouls
27.6 expected
15.6 for Dordrecht and 12.0 for NAC Breda
- Over 20.5 fouls89%
- Over 22.5 fouls81%
- Over 24.5 fouls69%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.