Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht

  1. Jong Utrecht45%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Dordrecht33%

2.11 expected goals for Jong Utrecht

1.71 expected goals for Dordrecht

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Jong Utrecht has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Dordrecht win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong Utrecht defence, which lets in 70% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Dordrecht defence, which lets in 69% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Jong Utrecht

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Jong Utrecht attack−17%
  3. Dordrecht defence+69%

Expected goals2.11

Dordrecht

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Dordrecht attack−26%
  2. Jong Utrecht defence+70%

Expected goals1.71

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.8 for Jong Utrecht and 5.2 for Dordrecht

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Jong Utrecht and 2.4 for Dordrecht

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.1 expected

13.8 for Jong Utrecht and 13.3 for Dordrecht

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

29.7 expected

15.3 for Jong Utrecht and 14.3 for Dordrecht

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls80%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.