Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Jong PSV U21 vs NAC Breda

  1. Jong PSV U2128%
  2. Draw23%
  3. NAC Breda49%

1.12 expected goals for Jong PSV U21

1.78 expected goals for NAC Breda

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

NAC Breda has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Jong PSV U21 win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong PSV U21 attack, which scores 25% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Jong PSV U21 defence, which lets in 27% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Jong PSV U21

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Jong PSV U21 attack−25%
  3. NAC Breda defence−2%

Expected goals1.12

NAC Breda

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. NAC Breda attack+3%
  2. Jong PSV U21 defence+27%

Expected goals1.78

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.1 for Jong PSV U21 and 4.8 for NAC Breda

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Jong PSV U21 and 2.1 for NAC Breda

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

25.9 expected

10.8 for Jong PSV U21 and 15.1 for NAC Breda

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.9 for Jong PSV U21 and 11.5 for NAC Breda

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.