Jong Ajax vs Vitesse
- Jong Ajax25%
- Draw23%
- Vitesse52%
1.11 expected goals for Jong Ajax
1.98 expected goals for Vitesse
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Vitesse has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Jong Ajax win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Jong Ajax defence, which lets in 71% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Jong Ajax attack, which scores 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Jong Ajax
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Jong Ajax attack−26%
- Vitesse defence−1%
Expected goals1.11
Vitesse
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Vitesse attack−15%
- Jong Ajax defence+71%
Expected goals1.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals37%
- Over 4.5 goals20%
- Both teams score58%
- Jong Ajax or draw48%
- Draw or Vitesse75%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
5.5 for Jong Ajax and 5.1 for Vitesse
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.0 for Jong Ajax and 2.4 for Vitesse
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
26.4 expected
14.3 for Jong Ajax and 12.1 for Vitesse
- Over 20.5 shots80%
- Over 22.5 shots69%
- Over 24.5 shots58%
Fouls
28.5 expected
14.5 for Jong Ajax and 14.1 for Vitesse
- Over 20.5 fouls92%
- Over 22.5 fouls85%
- Over 24.5 fouls75%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.