Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Vitesse0-2Emmen

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Vitesse win (46%).

Vitesse vs Emmen

  1. Vitesse46%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Emmen31%

1.79 expected goals for Vitesse

1.35 expected goals for Emmen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Vitesse has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Emmen win at 31%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.3 for Vitesse and 4.7 for Emmen

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.2 for Vitesse and 2.1 for Emmen

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

26.1 expected

13.4 for Vitesse and 12.7 for Emmen

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.5 expected

12.2 for Vitesse and 12.3 for Emmen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.