Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

NAC Breda1-1Heracles

The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Heracles win (45%).

NAC Breda vs Heracles

  1. NAC Breda32%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Heracles45%

1.53 expected goals for NAC Breda

1.99 expected goals for Heracles

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Heracles has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a NAC Breda win at 32%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.3 for NAC Breda and 4.9 for Heracles

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for NAC Breda and 2.2 for Heracles

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

28.6 expected

14.7 for NAC Breda and 13.9 for Heracles

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

26.3 expected

13.0 for NAC Breda and 13.4 for Heracles

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.