Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

FC Eindhoven1-2Jong PSV U21

The model's most likely result happened: a Jong PSV U21 win (40%).

FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21

  1. FC Eindhoven37%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Jong PSV U2140%

1.43 expected goals for FC Eindhoven

1.54 expected goals for Jong PSV U21

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for FC Eindhoven and 4.8 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.8 for FC Eindhoven and 1.9 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.6 expected

15.1 for FC Eindhoven and 12.5 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.3 for FC Eindhoven and 12.1 for Jong PSV U21

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.