Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Den Bosch2-2MVV

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Den Bosch win (54%).

Den Bosch vs MVV

  1. Den Bosch54%
  2. Draw22%
  3. MVV24%

1.99 expected goals for Den Bosch

1.12 expected goals for MVV

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Den Bosch has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a MVV win at 24%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Den Bosch and 4.2 for MVV

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Den Bosch and 2.0 for MVV

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.3 expected

14.4 for Den Bosch and 10.9 for MVV

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

24.7 expected

11.4 for Den Bosch and 13.4 for MVV

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.