Friday 23 October, 13:00
Final score
De Graafschap1-1Waalwijk
The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Waalwijk win (47%).
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
- De Graafschap30%
- Draw23%
- Waalwijk47%
1.49 expected goals for De Graafschap
2.07 expected goals for Waalwijk
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Waalwijk has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a De Graafschap win at 30%. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.6 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals62%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals48%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals29%It did not happen
- Both teams score61%
- De Graafschap or draw53%
- Draw or Waalwijk70%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.6 expected
5.3 for De Graafschap and 5.2 for Waalwijk
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
4.2 expected
2.0 for De Graafschap and 2.2 for Waalwijk
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
28.5 expected
14.0 for De Graafschap and 14.5 for Waalwijk
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots78%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
24.9 expected
12.1 for De Graafschap and 12.7 for Waalwijk
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls65%
- Over 24.5 fouls51%
Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.