Probably Football

Matches

Eerste Divisie (Netherlands)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Almere City FC2-3Roda

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Almere City FC win (50%).

Almere City FC vs Roda

  1. Almere City FC50%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Roda27%

1.46 expected goals for Almere City FC

0.91 expected goals for Roda

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Almere City FC has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Roda win at 27%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.3 for Almere City FC and 4.1 for Roda

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.6 for Almere City FC and 2.0 for Roda

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

25.9 expected

15.2 for Almere City FC and 10.7 for Roda

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

23.9 expected

12.2 for Almere City FC and 11.7 for Roda

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.