Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Vejle vs FC Fredericia

  1. Vejle36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. FC Fredericia37%

1.34 expected goals for Vejle

1.38 expected goals for FC Fredericia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Fredericia defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Fredericia attack, which scores 77% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vejle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vejle attack+68%
  3. FC Fredericia defence−47%

Expected goals1.34

FC Fredericia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Fredericia attack+77%
  2. Vejle defence−43%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.