Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

HB Koge vs Aalborg

  1. HB Koge41%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Aalborg34%

1.57 expected goals for HB Koge

1.39 expected goals for Aalborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the HB Koge attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Aalborg defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

HB Koge

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. HB Koge attack+39%
  3. Aalborg defence−26%

Expected goals1.57

Aalborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Aalborg attack+31%
  2. HB Koge defence−22%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.