Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle

  1. Vendsyssel FF25%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Vejle51%

1.23 expected goals for Vendsyssel FF

1.79 expected goals for Vejle

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Vejle has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Vendsyssel FF win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vejle defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vejle attack, which scores 73% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vendsyssel FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vendsyssel FF attack+41%
  3. Vejle defence−43%

Expected goals1.23

Vejle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Vejle attack+73%
  2. Vendsyssel FF defence−24%

Expected goals1.79

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.