Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Kolding IF vs HB Koge

  1. Kolding IF46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. HB Koge28%

1.55 expected goals for Kolding IF

1.07 expected goals for HB Koge

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Kolding IF has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a HB Koge win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kolding IF defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Kolding IF attack, which scores 38% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kolding IF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kolding IF attack+38%
  3. HB Koge defence−26%

Expected goals1.55

HB Koge

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. HB Koge attack+35%
  2. Kolding IF defence−42%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.