Probably Football

Matches

1. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

FC Fredericia vs AB Copenhagen

  1. FC Fredericia41%
  2. Draw26%
  3. AB Copenhagen33%

1.51 expected goals for FC Fredericia

1.31 expected goals for AB Copenhagen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Fredericia has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a AB Copenhagen win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Fredericia defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the AB Copenhagen attack, which scores 80% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Fredericia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Fredericia attack+68%
  3. AB Copenhagen defence−41%

Expected goals1.51

AB Copenhagen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AB Copenhagen attack+80%
  2. FC Fredericia defence−46%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.