Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna

  1. Atlante FC39%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Santos Laguna33%

1.33 expected goals for Atlante FC

1.39 expected goals for Santos Laguna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is playing at home, which adds 11% to the goals of Atlante FC. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atlante FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atlante FC attack−8%
  3. Santos Laguna defence−4%

Expected goals1.33

Santos Laguna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Santos Laguna attack−2%
  2. Atlante FC defence+4%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.6 for Atlante FC and 4.4 for Santos Laguna

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Atlante FC and 2.4 for Santos Laguna

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.4 expected

14.5 for Atlante FC and 10.8 for Santos Laguna

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots52%

Fouls

25.0 expected

13.2 for Atlante FC and 11.8 for Santos Laguna

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.