Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

  1. Necaxa30%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Club Tijuana44%

1.22 expected goals for Necaxa

1.78 expected goals for Club Tijuana

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Club Tijuana has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Necaxa win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Necaxa attack, which scores 14% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Necaxa defence, which lets in 15% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 11.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Necaxa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Necaxa attack−14%
  3. Club Tijuana defence−7%

Expected goals1.22

Club Tijuana

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Tijuana attack+13%
  2. Necaxa defence+15%

Expected goals1.78

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.5 expected

6.5 for Necaxa and 4.9 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 8.5 corners74%
  2. Over 9.5 corners65%
  3. Over 10.5 corners56%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Necaxa and 2.3 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

30.4 expected

16.2 for Necaxa and 14.1 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

24.1 expected

13.1 for Necaxa and 11.0 for Club Tijuana

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.