Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez

  1. Atletico San Luis54%
  2. Draw23%
  3. FC Juarez23%

2.00 expected goals for Atletico San Luis

1.29 expected goals for FC Juarez

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Atletico San Luis has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a FC Juarez win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Juarez defence, which lets in 30% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico San Luis

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico San Luis attack+2%
  3. FC Juarez defence+30%

Expected goals2.00

FC Juarez

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Juarez attack−7%
  2. Atletico San Luis defence+2%

Expected goals1.29

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.0 for Atletico San Luis and 5.5 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.1 for Atletico San Luis and 2.6 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

26.4 expected

13.7 for Atletico San Luis and 12.7 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.1 for Atletico San Luis and 12.8 for FC Juarez

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.