Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Cruz Azul vs Leon

  1. Cruz Azul57%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Leon21%

2.19 expected goals for Cruz Azul

1.25 expected goals for Leon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Cruz Azul the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cruz Azul attack, which scores 66% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Cruz Azul defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cruz Azul

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cruz Azul attack+66%
  3. Leon defence−13%

Expected goals2.19

Leon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Leon attack+9%
  2. Cruz Azul defence−15%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.9 for Cruz Azul and 4.1 for Leon

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Cruz Azul and 2.4 for Leon

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.7 expected

17.7 for Cruz Azul and 11.0 for Leon

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.1 for Cruz Azul and 12.7 for Leon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.