Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Santos Laguna vs Necaxa

  1. Santos Laguna51%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Necaxa24%

1.81 expected goals for Santos Laguna

1.22 expected goals for Necaxa

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Santos Laguna has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Necaxa win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Necaxa defence, which lets in 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Santos Laguna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Santos Laguna attack+1%
  3. Necaxa defence+19%

Expected goals1.81

Necaxa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Necaxa attack−10%
  2. Santos Laguna defence0%

Expected goals1.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.8 for Santos Laguna and 4.3 for Necaxa

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Santos Laguna and 2.3 for Necaxa

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.6 expected

16.7 for Santos Laguna and 11.9 for Necaxa

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.2 for Santos Laguna and 12.4 for Necaxa

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.