Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC

  1. Guadalajara Chivas58%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Atlante FC17%

1.73 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas

0.80 expected goals for Atlante FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Guadalajara Chivas the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Guadalajara Chivas defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Guadalajara Chivas attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 11.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Guadalajara Chivas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Guadalajara Chivas attack+19%
  3. Atlante FC defence−4%

Expected goals1.73

Atlante FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atlante FC attack−12%
  2. Guadalajara Chivas defence−34%

Expected goals0.80

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.8 expected

6.5 for Guadalajara Chivas and 5.3 for Atlante FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners76%
  2. Over 9.5 corners68%
  3. Over 10.5 corners59%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Guadalajara Chivas and 2.2 for Atlante FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.5 expected

15.6 for Guadalajara Chivas and 10.8 for Atlante FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

25.0 expected

11.8 for Guadalajara Chivas and 13.2 for Atlante FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls52%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.