Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul

Club Queretaro25%
Draw25%
Cruz Azul50%

1.08 expected goals for Club Queretaro

1.89 expected goals for Cruz Azul

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Cruz Azul has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Club Queretaro win at 25%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.7 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
Over 3.5 goals35%It happened
Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Both teams score56%
Club Queretaro or draw50%
Draw or Cruz Azul75%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.7 for Club Queretaro and 4.9 for Cruz Azul

Over 8.5 corners68%
Over 9.5 corners58%
Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Club Queretaro and 2.3 for Cruz Azul

Over 3.5 cards63%
Over 4.5 cards44%
Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

31.7 expected

15.3 for Club Queretaro and 16.4 for Cruz Azul

Over 20.5 shots93%
Over 22.5 shots88%
Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.2 for Club Queretaro and 11.2 for Cruz Azul

Over 20.5 fouls63%
Over 22.5 fouls48%
Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.