Leon vs Toluca

Leon30%
Draw25%
Toluca45%

1.26 expected goals for Leon

1.85 expected goals for Toluca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Toluca has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Leon win at 30%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
Over 2.5 goals56%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals38%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen

Both teams score58%
Leon or draw55%
Draw or Toluca70%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.2 for Leon and 4.9 for Toluca

Over 8.5 corners63%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Leon and 2.4 for Toluca

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards45%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

30.9 expected

16.1 for Leon and 14.7 for Toluca

Over 20.5 shots92%
Over 22.5 shots86%
Over 24.5 shots78%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.6 for Leon and 12.9 for Toluca

Over 20.5 fouls76%
Over 22.5 fouls63%
Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.