Wednesday 21 October, 22:00
Final score
CF Pachuca1-2Cruz Azul
The model's most likely result happened: a Cruz Azul win (39%).
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
- CF Pachuca35%
- Draw26%
- Cruz Azul39%
1.34 expected goals for CF Pachuca
1.67 expected goals for Cruz Azul
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.1 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen
- Both teams score58%
- CF Pachuca or draw61%
- Draw or Cruz Azul66%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.7 for CF Pachuca and 4.3 for Cruz Azul
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
5.0 expected
2.2 for CF Pachuca and 2.8 for Cruz Azul
- Over 3.5 cards73%
- Over 4.5 cards55%
- Over 5.5 cards38%
Shots
34.1 expected
17.6 for CF Pachuca and 16.5 for Cruz Azul
- Over 20.5 shots96%
- Over 22.5 shots92%
- Over 24.5 shots87%
Fouls
24.6 expected
12.9 for CF Pachuca and 11.6 for Cruz Azul
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls63%
- Over 24.5 fouls49%
Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.