Puebla vs Monterrey

Puebla28%
Draw28%
Monterrey44%

1.03 expected goals for Puebla

1.61 expected goals for Monterrey

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Monterrey has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Puebla win at 28%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
Over 2.5 goals50%It happened
Over 3.5 goals27%It happened
Over 4.5 goals13%It happened

Both teams score55%
Puebla or draw56%
Draw or Monterrey72%
No draw73%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

4.8 for Puebla and 5.6 for Monterrey

Over 8.5 corners65%
Over 9.5 corners55%
Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.9 for Puebla and 1.7 for Monterrey

Over 3.5 cards48%
Over 4.5 cards29%
Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

25.2 expected

12.8 for Puebla and 12.4 for Monterrey

Over 20.5 shots75%
Over 22.5 shots63%
Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.2 for Puebla and 11.9 for Monterrey

Over 20.5 fouls68%
Over 22.5 fouls53%
Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.