Atlas vs Club America

Atlas27%
Draw25%
Club America48%

1.12 expected goals for Atlas

1.82 expected goals for Club America

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Club America has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Atlas win at 27%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
Over 4.5 goals18%It happened

Both teams score57%
Atlas or draw53%
Draw or Club America73%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.9 for Atlas and 4.7 for Club America

Over 8.5 corners67%
Over 9.5 corners57%
Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Atlas and 2.3 for Club America

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards45%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

26.5 expected

13.7 for Atlas and 12.8 for Club America

Over 20.5 shots80%
Over 22.5 shots70%
Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

25.9 expected

13.7 for Atlas and 12.2 for Club America

Over 20.5 fouls83%
Over 22.5 fouls72%
Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 21 October at 07:01 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.