Probably Football

Matches

Liga MX (Mexico)

Tuesday 20 October, 22:00

Final score

Tigres UANL0-2Leon

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Tigres UANL win (48%).

Tigres UANL vs Leon

  1. Tigres UANL48%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Leon24%

1.44 expected goals for Tigres UANL

0.99 expected goals for Leon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Tigres UANL has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Leon win at 24%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.5 for Tigres UANL and 3.7 for Leon

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Tigres UANL and 2.2 for Leon

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.4 expected

15.0 for Tigres UANL and 12.4 for Leon

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

24.8 expected

12.1 for Tigres UANL and 12.7 for Leon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.