Tuesday 20 October, 22:00
Final score
Guadalajara Chivas1-0Necaxa
The model's most likely result happened: a Guadalajara Chivas win (67%).
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
- Guadalajara Chivas67%
- Draw19%
- Necaxa14%
2.44 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas
0.94 expected goals for Necaxa
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Guadalajara Chivas the clear favourite: 67% to win. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.0 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals85%It did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals59%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals44%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals25%It did not happen
- Both teams score56%
- Guadalajara Chivas or draw86%
- Draw or Necaxa33%
- No draw81%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.8 for Guadalajara Chivas and 4.3 for Necaxa
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.2 expected
2.0 for Guadalajara Chivas and 2.1 for Necaxa
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
26.8 expected
16.2 for Guadalajara Chivas and 10.6 for Necaxa
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
23.8 expected
11.5 for Guadalajara Chivas and 12.3 for Necaxa
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls58%
- Over 24.5 fouls43%
Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:02 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.