Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Udinese vs AS Roma

  1. Udinese8%
  2. Draw17%
  3. AS Roma75%

0.91 expected goals for Udinese

2.56 expected goals for AS Roma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes AS Roma the clear favourite: 75% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AS Roma attack, which scores 174% more goals than an average team. Next comes the AS Roma defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Udinese

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Udinese attack+23%
  3. AS Roma defence−51%

Expected goals0.91

AS Roma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AS Roma attack+174%
  2. Udinese defence−31%

Expected goals2.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Udinese and 4.6 for AS Roma

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Udinese and 2.3 for AS Roma

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

28.7 expected

13.3 for Udinese and 15.4 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

20.6 expected

10.0 for Udinese and 10.6 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 fouls49%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls33%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls21%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.