Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
- Sassuolo35%
- Draw25%
- Fiorentina40%
1.67 expected goals for Sassuolo
1.75 expected goals for Fiorentina
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sassuolo attack, which scores 52% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Fiorentina attack, which scores 51% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Sassuolo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Sassuolo attack+52%
- Fiorentina defence−27%
Expected goals1.67
Fiorentina
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Fiorentina attack+51%
- Sassuolo defence−15%
Expected goals1.75
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals86%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals44%
- Over 4.5 goals26%
- Both teams score59%
- Sassuolo or draw60%
- Draw or Fiorentina65%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
4.8 for Sassuolo and 4.7 for Fiorentina
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.6 for Sassuolo and 2.5 for Fiorentina
- Over 3.5 cards60%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
27.6 expected
14.9 for Sassuolo and 12.7 for Fiorentina
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
23.3 expected
10.6 for Sassuolo and 12.7 for Fiorentina
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.