Frosinone vs Torino
- Frosinone53%
- Draw23%
- Torino24%
2.26 expected goals for Frosinone
1.48 expected goals for Torino
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Frosinone has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Torino win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Frosinone attack, which scores 110% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Torino attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Frosinone
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Frosinone attack+110%
- Torino defence−29%
Expected goals2.26
Torino
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Torino attack+43%
- Frosinone defence−24%
Expected goals1.48
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals97%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Over 3.5 goals51%
- Over 4.5 goals32%
- Both teams score60%
- Frosinone or draw76%
- Draw or Torino47%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.7 for Frosinone and 4.5 for Torino
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
3.6 expected
1.5 for Frosinone and 2.1 for Torino
- Over 3.5 cards50%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
33.2 expected
20.0 for Frosinone and 13.2 for Torino
- Over 20.5 shots95%
- Over 22.5 shots90%
- Over 24.5 shots84%
Fouls
21.9 expected
11.8 for Frosinone and 10.1 for Torino
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.