Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Como vs Venezia

  1. Como79%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Venezia7%

2.90 expected goals for Como

0.73 expected goals for Venezia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Como the clear favourite: 79% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Como attack, which scores 138% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Como defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Como

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Como attack+138%
  3. Venezia defence−19%

Expected goals2.90

Venezia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Venezia attack+23%
  2. Como defence−57%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.2 for Como and 4.5 for Venezia

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.5 for Como and 2.5 for Venezia

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

29.1 expected

18.7 for Como and 10.4 for Venezia

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

22.1 expected

10.7 for Como and 11.4 for Venezia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.