Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Atalanta vs Parma

  1. Atalanta57%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Parma16%

1.65 expected goals for Atalanta

0.74 expected goals for Parma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Atalanta the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atalanta attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Atalanta defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atalanta

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atalanta attack+71%
  3. Parma defence−36%

Expected goals1.64

Parma

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Parma attack−12%
  2. Atalanta defence−38%

Expected goals0.74

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Atalanta and 4.2 for Parma

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Atalanta and 2.3 for Parma

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

31.9 expected

20.0 for Atalanta and 11.9 for Parma

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

20.8 expected

10.8 for Atalanta and 10.0 for Parma

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.