AC Milan vs Inter
- AC Milan23%
- Draw24%
- Inter53%
1.35 expected goals for AC Milan
1.99 expected goals for Inter
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Inter has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a AC Milan win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Inter attack, which scores 165% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Inter defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 8.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
AC Milan
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- AC Milan attack+79%
- Inter defence−50%
Expected goals1.35
Inter
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Inter attack+165%
- AC Milan defence−45%
Expected goals1.99
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals24%
- Both teams score58%
- AC Milan or draw47%
- Draw or Inter77%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.6 expected
4.5 for AC Milan and 4.1 for Inter
- Over 8.5 corners47%
- Over 9.5 corners37%
- Over 10.5 corners27%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.2 for AC Milan and 2.3 for Inter
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards48%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
28.1 expected
12.4 for AC Milan and 15.7 for Inter
- Over 20.5 shots85%
- Over 22.5 shots77%
- Over 24.5 shots67%
Fouls
22.7 expected
11.1 for AC Milan and 11.6 for Inter
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.