Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Wednesday 28 October, 12:30

Final score

Parma0-0Udinese

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Udinese win (40%).

Parma vs Udinese

  1. Parma28%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Udinese40%

0.97 expected goals for Parma

1.15 expected goals for Udinese

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Udinese has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Parma win at 28%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%It did not happen
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.2 for Parma and 4.3 for Udinese

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Parma and 2.3 for Udinese

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

28.0 expected

14.4 for Parma and 13.6 for Udinese

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

22.0 expected

10.1 for Parma and 11.9 for Udinese

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.