Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Wednesday 28 October, 12:30

Final score

AC Milan2-4Bologna

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a AC Milan win (50%).

AC Milan vs Bologna

  1. AC Milan50%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Bologna22%

1.61 expected goals for AC Milan

0.96 expected goals for Bologna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

AC Milan has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Bologna win at 22%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.5 for AC Milan and 3.7 for Bologna

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for AC Milan and 2.3 for Bologna

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.0 expected

14.9 for AC Milan and 10.0 for Bologna

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

23.7 expected

11.1 for AC Milan and 12.6 for Bologna

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.