Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Sunday 25 October, 12:30

Final score

Napoli3-3AS Roma

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a AS Roma win (50%).

Napoli vs AS Roma

  1. Napoli23%
  2. Draw27%
  3. AS Roma50%

1.16 expected goals for Napoli

1.69 expected goals for AS Roma

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

AS Roma has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Napoli win at 23%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.8 for Napoli and 3.8 for AS Roma

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Napoli and 2.3 for AS Roma

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.7 expected

15.4 for Napoli and 12.3 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

21.5 expected

10.0 for Napoli and 11.5 for AS Roma

  1. Over 20.5 fouls57%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls41%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.