Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Sunday 25 October, 12:30

Final score

Lecce0-2Juventus

The model's most likely result happened: a Juventus win (63%).

Lecce vs Juventus

  1. Lecce12%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Juventus63%

0.74 expected goals for Lecce

1.76 expected goals for Juventus

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Juventus the clear favourite: 63% to win. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.9 for Lecce and 4.2 for Juventus

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.7 for Lecce and 1.7 for Juventus

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

24.3 expected

10.7 for Lecce and 13.5 for Juventus

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots58%
  3. Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.4 for Lecce and 10.6 for Juventus

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.