Inter vs Fiorentina

Inter77%
Draw14%
Fiorentina9%

3.26 expected goals for Inter

1.04 expected goals for Fiorentina

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Inter the clear favourite: 77% to win. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 8.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
Over 1.5 goals93%It happened
Over 2.5 goals60%It happened
Over 3.5 goals62%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals43%It did not happen

Both teams score57%
Inter or draw91%
Draw or Fiorentina23%
No draw86%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.6 expected

4.9 for Inter and 3.6 for Fiorentina

Over 8.5 corners47%
Over 9.5 corners36%
Over 10.5 corners27%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Inter and 2.4 for Fiorentina

Over 3.5 cards60%
Over 4.5 cards41%
Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.8 expected

17.8 for Inter and 11.0 for Fiorentina

Over 20.5 shots87%
Over 22.5 shots79%
Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

21.0 expected

9.8 for Inter and 11.3 for Fiorentina

Over 20.5 fouls53%
Over 22.5 fouls37%
Over 24.5 fouls24%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.