Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Sunday 25 October, 12:30

Final score

Genoa1-0Venezia

The model's most likely result happened: a Genoa win (43%).

Genoa vs Venezia

  1. Genoa43%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Venezia29%

1.54 expected goals for Genoa

1.20 expected goals for Venezia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Genoa has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Venezia win at 29%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.8 for Genoa and 4.1 for Venezia

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Genoa and 2.4 for Venezia

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

29.1 expected

17.1 for Genoa and 11.9 for Venezia

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

22.7 expected

11.6 for Genoa and 11.0 for Venezia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.