Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Italy)

Sunday 25 October, 12:30

Final score

Cagliari0-2Bologna

The model's most likely result happened: a Bologna win (38%).

Cagliari vs Bologna

  1. Cagliari31%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Bologna38%

1.10 expected goals for Cagliari

1.19 expected goals for Bologna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for Cagliari and 4.5 for Bologna

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.4 expected

1.4 for Cagliari and 2.0 for Bologna

  1. Over 3.5 cards44%
  2. Over 4.5 cards26%
  3. Over 5.5 cards13%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.9 for Cagliari and 12.1 for Bologna

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

22.5 expected

10.4 for Cagliari and 12.1 for Bologna

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.