Probably Football

Matches

Primera A (Colombia)

Fortaleza FC vs Independiente Medellin

  1. Fortaleza FC34%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Independiente Medellin37%

1.12 expected goals for Fortaleza FC

1.55 expected goals for Independiente Medellin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente Medellin attack, which scores 33% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Independiente Medellin defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fortaleza FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fortaleza FC attack−4%
  3. Independiente Medellin defence−22%

Expected goals1.13

Independiente Medellin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Independiente Medellin attack+33%
  2. Fortaleza FC defence−14%

Expected goals1.55

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.8 for Fortaleza FC and 4.2 for Independiente Medellin

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.1 for Fortaleza FC and 2.7 for Independiente Medellin

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

25.1 expected

14.4 for Fortaleza FC and 10.8 for Independiente Medellin

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

23.3 expected

11.2 for Fortaleza FC and 12.1 for Independiente Medellin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.